What The Stats Say: Opta shows value method to back another Arsenal win

Dan Fitch thinks that Arsenal will concede against Crystal Palace but ultimately win, as he uses Opta statistics to pick six bets for the midweek Premier League fixtures.

Blades getting sharper

Sheffield United 2.546/4 v Newcastle 3.39/4; The Draw 3.39/4
Tuesday 12 January, 18:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Sheffield United remain the only side without a clean sheet in the Premier League this season, conceding in each of their 17 games so far. In the history of the competition, only four teams have ever gone 18+ games from the start of a campaign without a clean sheet, most recently Blackburn (27) and Norwich (21) in 2011-12.”

Newcastle have conceded in seven of their last eight games and, with Sheffield United scoring three times in the FA Cup over the weekend, both teams to score could land at 2.166/5.

Burnley will keep it tight in defeat

Burnley 8.07/1 v Manchester United 1.4740/85; The Draw 5.04/1
Tuesday 12 January, 20:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Burnley have scored just one goal in their six Premier League home games against Manchester United, compared to seven in six away games versus the Red Devils in the competition.”

The Clarets are defending much better these days and this could be a low scoring win for the visitors, that sends them top of the Premier League. A Manchester United victory and under 2.5 goals is 3.9.

Everton have improved defensively

Wolves 2.68/5 v Everton 3.211/5; The Draw 3.39/4
Tuesday 12 January, 20:15
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

“After a run of six Premier League games in which they conceded at least twice in October/November, Everton have shipped just four goals in their last seven in the competition and never more than once in a match in that run.”

Wolves do not concede many goals at home and you can back ‘No’ in the Both Teams To Score market at 1.875/6.

Goals will flow at Etihad

Manchester City 1.182/11 v Brighton 20.019/1; The Draw 9.28/1
Wednesday 13 January, 18:00
Live on BT Sport 1

“Brighton have conceded the fifth highest number of goals in the Premier League this season (28).”

With Brighton often finding the net, a Manchester City win and over 3.5 goals could land at 2.47/5.

Spurs rarely conceding in open play

Tottenham 1.42/5 v Fulham 10.09/1; The Draw 5.24/1
Wednesday 13 January, 20:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Just 33% of Tottenham’s goals conceded in the Premier League this season have been from open play (5/15), the lowest ratio in the competition so far this term.”

Fulham have struggled to score goals this season and you can back Spurs to win to nil at 2.26/5.

Palace can score at Arsenal

Arsenal 1.564/7 v Crystal Palace 7.413/2; The Draw 4.47/2
Thursday 14 January, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Arsenal have conceded at least once in each of their last 11 Premier League home games – they last had a longer run without a home clean sheet between October 1983 and August 1984 (18 games).”

The Gunners have now won their last four matches and you can back a home victory and both teams to score at 3.55/2.

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