UFC Fight Island Breakdown and Betting Prediction: Chris Daukaus vs. Rodrigo Nascimento

The next UFC event has plenty of betting opportunities available. One fight to take a look into is a heavy bout between Chris Daukaus and Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira.

Date: Saturday, October 10, 4:00 PM
Venue: Flash Forum
Watch on: ESPN+

Chris Daukaus (9-3-0)

Daukaus is currently on a two fight win streak heading into this one. His fighting resume shows that he has 8 wins by knockout and 1 by decision.

With only 1 UFC fight so far in his resume, his stats are not as accurate as they would be if they were averaged out over his resume. He has a striking accuracy at 62 percent and a significant strike defense at 67 percent.

He lands 8.28 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 3.81. Again, this is based on one fight. But if he can continue these numbers, that would be excellent. He does not have any recorded takedown, submission, or defensive averages.

Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira (8-0-0)

Nascimento is coming in undefeated into this fight. His fighting resume shows that he has 2 wins by knockout and 6 by submission.

“Ze Colmeia” also only has 1 UFC fight, so his stats too will appear inflated in places. He has a striking accuracy at 56 percent and a grappling accuracy at 100 percent. He lands 4.44 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 3.38. This is a solid ratio if he keeps it up.

Nascimento has a takedown defense at 100 percent and a significant strike defense at 44 percent. He also averages 2.90 takedowns and submissions every 15 minutes.

Odds For This Event

The market has been up and down for this matchup. Intertops has the odds currently placed at:

Daukaus: +225

Nascimento: -300

*odds are subject to changes

Potential Winning Pick

Both of these fighters are fresh off their UFC debut victories and are both looking to keep adding wins to their resumes. However, can these odds be justified here?

Daukaus has a lot to like here and is definitely a heavy hitter. In his first UFC fight, we can see he had a lot of great strikes and was mostly on his feet.

Nascimento is a heavy favorite here with a somewhat more balanced resume. He will be aggressive on his takedowns and earn points where he needs it most.

Spooky Express Free Pick: Nascimento wins via decision

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