Saturday, Nov. 14, 2020 | 7 p.m.
Michael Badgley is now a persona non grata as it pertains to Sunday Sweats.
A missed 48-yard, first-quarter field goal from the Chargers’ kicker last Sunday, which would have been the first points of their game hosting the Raiders, was the only thing that kept the column from its first perfect week. I’ll take a 5-1 performance every week, though, and hope the Week 9 success is a sign that I’m entering midseason form.
On second thought, Badgley is off the hook — as long as he helps the bottom line this week.
Read this week’s Sunday Sweats column below. For accounting purposes, all plays outside of the pick’em will be linked and counted in the Sunday Sweats records. The records are attached to each individual category and totaled at the bottom of the page with the monetary figure calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing $100 on each play.
Tasty Total (7-5, $136.37): Bengals at Steelers under 46.5 points (BetMGM)
There seems to be a misconception over how well both offenses have played midway through the season. Truthfully, neither has been very good. Pittsburgh has been carried by its defense and sits 25th in the league at 5.2 yards per play. Cincinnati, despite occasional heroics from Joe Burrow, sits 27th at 5 yards per play. Problem is, the Bengals have been even worse defensively. But they’re coming off of a bye week where they hopefully shored up some weaknesses. This seems high for a divisional game between two middling offenses. Prominent sports books offshore are a full point lower on the total.
Two-team Teaser (5-4, $9.99): Ravens -1 & Bears +9 (William Hill)
I’m breaking my own rule here of sticking to standard six-point teasers, but this one is pretty close, and given the low totals in the game, I think there’s value. These two games are tied for the lowest total on the board at over/under 43.5 points, giving extra value to move through key numbers like 3 in the Ravens’ case and 7 in the Bears’ case. The Vikings’ offense hasn’t seen a defense as strong as the Bears’ in months. The Ravens have gone through their struggles, but they should still be able to handle a mediocre Patriots side.
Moneyline parlay (6-3, $1,272.26): Chargers & Eagles +315 (Stations)
Sure was nice of Stations to concentrate the best prices in the market on both my favorite underdog (the Chargers +110) and, um, overdog (Eagles -200). I can understand why both Los Angeles and Philadelphia are underpriced. Both have been beset by injuries but appear to be getting healthier going into Sunday. Yes, the Eagles barely eked out a win over the Giants in a 22-21 victory that came down to the wire in their first meeting but I’m not going to overreact to one game. Philadelphia has a much better roster. The Chargers also quietly have a better roster than the Dolphins and should be able to get back on a winning track on the road.
Prop-hunting* (8-8, -$64.44): Kyler Murray under 276.5 passing yards (William Hill)
What is this, an under in a game with a total of 56.5 points? Sadly, yes. Truth is, the prop offerings were somewhat lacking at publication time — blame Masters week for taking too much of booomakers’ focus away from football — and this was my favorite I could find. The Bills are eighth-to-last in the NFL in giving up 4.6 yards per rushing attempt. The Cardinals are seventh in the NFL in rushing on 46.6 percent of plays. In other words, I think Murray and Arizona control this game without going through the air. The Cardinals should run early, get a lead and then run more to preserve it.
Non-football Play (5-4, $123.78): Hideki Matsuyama +110 vs. Brooks Koepka in Masters fourth round (William Hill)
Matsuyama had a mediocre day on Saturday at Augusta National. So what? The guy is among the most consistent golfers on tour currently. He comes with far more certainty than Koepka, who’s up and down though still priced at the top of the market for his history of rising to the occasion in major tournaments. With both sitting at 8-under par, Matsuyama should not be an underdog here.
Sunday Sweats overall record: 31-24, $1,477.96
*Check tomorrow’s Raider gameday section for another prop bet.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.