How should I bet if I’m not intending to count?

Hi folks,

I know this may be a little bit against the general spirit of this subreddit, but bear with me. I’m a very amateur blackjack player. I love to play the game, but really for the sake of playing it, chatting with folks, going to vegas for a weekend.

I decided to make some use of my downtime during the pandemic and learn how to approach the game more reasonably. I’m not looking to become an AP. I don’t want to deal with or worry about heat. I’m very comfortable financially, so this is more a hobby than a way to make money. I also only plan on playing 10 – 20 hours a year (one or two trips to vegas). That being said, I’m not looking to just blindly throw money away, and I do genuinely love just sitting down and playing for hours. I also want to play in the high limit rooms.

Assuming I want to play without counting, and can play perfect strategy should I just be flat betting to lose the least amount of money possible? I would assume without a knowledge of the count, blindly betting a spread greatly increases my risk of ruin?

My second ask would be for someone to check my math, and help make sure I’m understanding this correctly.

My budget for how much I want to “spend” per trip is $1k. I plan to play 4 – 6 hours a day for three days per trip, and have a bankroll of $50k. What I mean by this is I’m comfortable losing this $50k, but I’d like to be able to use it to fund many trips.

  • Assume perfect basic strategy play and a house edge of .32% (DD, 3:2, S17, DAS, Double any card). I used this calculator

  • 5 hours * 3 days * 50 hands/hour = 750 hands.

  • $1k spend / 0.32% house edge = $312,500 action

  • $312,500 action / 750 hands = $416 bet / hand.

  • According to this table I would have 120 betting units, which puts my risk of ruin between 0.01% and 0.1%.

This basically means it’s incredibly unlikely I would ever run through my entire bankroll is one trip, right?

My final question is. If I want to completely avoid heat, and my goal is not to make money, but just have fun. Is it worth still learning to count and doing something like a 1 – 2, or a 1 – 4 bet spread. With the goal of bringing the house edge even closer to 0, or to be slightly above 0 so that I can essentially play indefinitely without the goal of making money.

I know this might be a little controversial for a subreddit full of APs, but I appreciate your time and thoughts!

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