EPL Matchday 14 Odds & Picks: Southampton vs Man City, West Brom vs Aston Villa & Newcastle vs Fulham

Manchester City's head coach Pep Guardiola

Manchester City’s head coach Pep Guardiola gives instructions from the side line during the Champions League, Group C, soccer match between Manchester City and Marseille at the Etihad stadium in Manchester in London Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2020. (AP Photo/Jon Super)
  • It’s the EPL’s Matchday 14 this weekend starting with Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
  • Third-placed Southampton entertain a struggling Manchester City in the game of the weekend
  • We list the odds for all ten games and preview three, offering our best picks below

Matchday 14 of the EPL kicks off on Saturday, December 19, KO 7:30 am EST, with Crystal Palace vs Liverpool early on Saturday, with three more games taking place later in the day, four more on Sunday and two on Monday. After their midweek win over Tottenham, Liverpool leads the Premier League by three points, ahead of the north Londoners, with Southampton and Leicester in joint-third, only a point behind Spurs.

Read on to see the odds and our best bets for the week’s action below.

English Premier League Matchday 14 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool +540 +340 -200
Southampton vs Manchester City +575 +360 -215
Everton vs Arsenal +130 +245 +210
Newcastle vs Fulham +155 +230 +180
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Sheffield United -155 +280 +460
Tottenham vs Leicester City +108 +245 +260
Manchester United vs Leeds United -148 +320 +370
West Brom vs Aston Villa +275 +280 -107
Burnley vs Wolves +270 +220 +115
Chelsea vs West Ham -205 +360 +540

All odds taken Dec 18 at DraftKings

Pick 1: Southampton vs Manchester City

Man City coach Pep Guardiola has seen his team fly in the Champions League this season but uncharacteristically struggle in the EPL. The Citizens are currently ninth – five wins from their 12 games – and come into this off the back of an underwhelming 1-1 draw at home with 19th-placed West Brom but, crucially, have a game in hand on most of the teams above them. If they win that game they will still be in touch with the pack.

Southampton, by contrast, have had a brilliant EPL campaign to date and are in joint-third with Leicester. A record of 7-3-3 has propelled them into the title race and Ralph Hassenhuttl has put together a talented team that looks capable of a sustained challenge. The Saints have won two of their last three games and come into this after a midweek draw against Arsenal at the Emirates.

Where Southampton needs to improve, is when going toe-to-toe with the teams regarded as the ‘big six’ – two draws and two defeats so far – and on that basis, it’s hard to see them beating City. But another draw for both teams is far from out of the question and, for me, is where the value is.

Pick: Southampton and Man City to draw (+360)

2021 English Premier League Odds Tracker

Pick 2: West Brom vs Aston Villa

West Brom’s impressive draw at the Etihad against Man City on Tuesday was not enough to save Slaven Bilic’s job. A few hours later he was the Baggies’ ex-coach and was replaced by the experienced ‘firefighter’ Sam Allardyce, who takes over with his new team in 19th position and with just a single win to their name – against bottom-of-the-table Sheffield United.

Villa are currently in 11th, on 19 points, but have two games in hand on most of the teams above them. If they win them both – a big ask – then they will be pushing hard for the top six, but either way they look a different prospect compared to last season when they only survived thanks to a win on the final day.

The key here will be whether or not two days is enough for Allardyce to get a tune out of this West Brom squad, and whether two days is enough to transform a defense that has so far conceded 26 goals. Again, the value here is with the draw.

Pick: West Brom vs Aston Villa (+280)

Pick 3: Newcastle vs Fulham

Fulham is 17th in the table and only out of the relegation zone due to having a better goal difference than Burnley, but is a team on the up. While they have won just twice in their opening 13 games, they have drawn their last two, including an outstanding 1-1 with champions Liverpool last weekend; a game they should have won. Their 0-0 draw with Brighton in midweek was less impressive but the clean sheet was regarded as significant by manager Scott Parker.

Newcastle, who are 14th in the table, have found consistency hard to come by, but have looked more than capable of avoiding the relegation scrap. They did, however, crash to a disappointing 5-2 defeat at Leeds in midweek and will be keen to bounce back against Fulham and retain the current eight-point cushion between themselves and the bottom three.

Fulham is in a good place right now though and if the Toon’s run of win-lose-win-lose continues, they are due another defeat. For me, there is value here in the away win.

Pick: Fulham to win (+180)

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